On average travel time to markets over 50,000 was 3.98 hours and the slope between transportation cost and travel time was 0.43 USD. The chemical formula is variable (e.g. A variable is included if the % increase in Mean Square Error was more than 10% in a country-level Random Forest model. To improve the quality of the data, we removed gross outliers that were clearly implausible. Yearly rate of increase** 8%. Also, the implicit (0, 0) intercept should be correct for prices. 1.04. An important avenue for future empirical work would be to evaluate the extent to which the subnational price variation we have documented is a useful explanatory factor for observed variation in smallholder fertilizer use in Sub-Saharan Africa, after controlling for local agronomic responses and output prices. Transportation cost ranged between 0.02 to 1.09 USD kg-1, with a mean equal to 0.06 ± 0.12 USD kg-1. CSV XML EXCEL. For most other countries, we had between 60 and 137 observations. Number of observations (n) and estimated slope coefficient. Aggregate fertilizer use in northern Nigeria is higher than in the south because it has a larger cultivated area and produces high value crops [48, 49]. The amount of sub-national price variation, and the performance of our interpolation models, differs strongly across countries in our sample. by targeting promoting efforts to areas where technologies are most profitable). Except for Mozambique, these countries are landlocked. EI: Root mean square error (USD kg-1). We compiled fertilizer price data for eighteen countries in West and East Africa from two data sources: (1) Africa Fertilizer [32] and (2) the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (henceforth LSMS) [33]. On average the transportation cost was 5.55% of the total paid for the fertilizer price. LSMS reported where the farmers purchased the fertilizer (within or near the village, within or near the town, urban center, outside the district or region) for Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Our models enable us to predict prices at locations for which there are no empirical data available. No, Is the Subject Area "Africa" applicable to this article? For the CAN models by country, the average slope was 0.96 (range: 0.89–1.01 USD kg-1) (S4 Table and S3 Fig). CAN is also known as nitro-limestone. The three countries with the most expensive urea are landlocked (Burundi: 1.51, Uganda: 1.49 and Burkina Faso: 1.49 USD kg-1) (Table 2). We compiled 7823 observations for 878 locations in seventeen countries: Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia from 2010–2018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g008. Random Forest has the benefit of flexibility for fitting potentially irregular surfaces resulting from complex interactions [39]. 3. Fertilizers Yara fertilisers, solid or liquid, supply all crop nutrients including nitrogen, sulphur, phosphate, potassium and a full range of micronutrients Crop information Conceptualization, For countries where Africa Fertilizer data was also available, models fit with these data generally did better (or both models were very poor). The lowest number of observations was for Benin (41), Niger (27), and Togo (26) (Table 2). Email * Comment or Message * Submit -> Goldfield Music animations: Safari Animation 2020 (Dancing Animals) - Funny Christmas Animation 2020 - Trance Music Animation 2020 - NEW Stronger Song 2020-> Goldfield Music videos: African Protests 2020 (Stronger Song) - Africa … For the DAP models by country, the average slope was 1.13 USD kg-1 (range: 0.87–1.27 USD kg-1) (S3 Table and S2 Fig). Blends tend to be cheaper but less consistent in quality. Political influence can affect the allocation of subsidies, with politically well-connected villages receive more input compared to less connected villages [52, 53, 54] or to reward loyalty [55, 56, 57]. Competition is driven through price incentives, product differentiation and specialized services such as individual agronomic advice, custom blending and application. Regional models are attractive as they could be used to predict price variation in countries for which we have limited local market price data, but we did not investigate that here. A downside of using such algorithmic methods is that there is no direct way to estimate uncertainty. We used the Random Forest algorithm as implemented in the R-package ‘randomForest’ [40]. Fertilizer demand, domestic production and imports 20 5. broad scope, and wide readership – a perfect fit for your research every time. Fertilizers come in different compounds and blends. For Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania, LSMS reported where the farmers purchased the fertilizer (i.e. All predictor variables were organized as spatial raster data sets with a 5 arc-minute (about 9 × 9 km) spatial resolution. Investigation, We compared the RMSE of the interpolation (EI) with that of a Null-model (E0), in which we assumed no spatial price variation, by computing relative RMSE as ER = 1-(EI / E0). We show that in many countries this variation can be predicted for unsampled locations by fitting models of prices as a function of longitude, latitude, and additional predictor variables that capture aspects of market access, demand and environmental conditions. ER expresses how much better the interpolated predictions are relative to the using a single national price. The red line represents the fitted model. Except for Senegal, these countries are neighbors and use a common currency (West African CFA franc). They both showed higher prices in the northwest, but they did not agree on prices in the south. Most of the variation is now between countries, instead of within countries. These results suggest that there is limited systematic spatial variation in fertilizer prices in Nigeria (Fig 7). Visualization, Fertilizer prices in South African are changed with international fertilizer market. Funding acquisition, 8%. For the NPK models fitted for each country, the average slope was 1.07 USD kg-1 (range: 0.85–1.18 USD kg-1) (S2 Table and S1 Fig). Our base year was 2010 (CPI = 1). However, elaborate Bayesian geostatistical approaches have been developed to estimate uncertainty in similar contexts (e.g., [61, 62]) and these methods could be applied to price data as well. Urea price (USD kg-1) for crop land in West Africa predicted with (a) country level models and (b) with a single regional ensemble model. Compounds are chemically processed to have all the specified units in one granule, while blends are a physical mixture of different minerals and nutrients in customized proportions. The LSMS data for Mali and Nigeria had many more outliers (25% and 24%) than Ethiopia (13%), Tanzania (10%), and Malawi (1.6%) (Table 1). Transportation cost range between 0.01 to 3.76 USD kg-1 of fertilizer, with a mean equal to 0.05 ± 0.17 USD kg-1. Africa Fertilizers market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1% during the forecast period (2020-2025). 0.80. For Nigeria and Tanzania, the questions about the purchased fertilizer (i.e. [24, 28, 29]). Comparison of fertilizer and crop prices 29 List of tables 1. Therefore, we also used Thin Plate Splines (TPS) to create smooth surfaces. Yes We did not use the data for Niger as the locations of the households were not provided, and there were only 13 households that reported a price for urea, which is our main focus in this paper. Random Forest models tend to predict very well within the range of the observed values, but the predictions may show sudden breaks, and can be poor in extrapolating. We evaluated the models with five-fold cross-validation. Any fertilizer distributed primarily for specified use in connection with grass, flowers, vegetables, golf courses and home use purposes. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, United States of America, Roles In addition, for Nigeria and Malawi LSMS reported transportation used by farmers to get to the market and transportation cost. The high number of unrealistic prices (excluded in our study as outliers) and poor model fit, suggest the need for better quality control mechanisms in this survey. We propose that spatial price estimation methods such as the ones we employ here may serve for better approximating heterogeneous economic market landscapes, until such time as truly comprehensive local market price information systems become available. Supervision, For Nigeria the interpolation models were not much better than the Null model regardless the data source (ER: 0.08 and -0.02) (Table 3). We predicted the spatial price index and derived absolute prices from that by multiplying it with the current average price. Yes It was restructured in 2014, when it became known as the Fertilizer Association of Southern Africa (Fertasa). To avoid an imbalance in the model evaluation, we used a sub-sample of the test data for these countries, with the sample size equal to the mean number of observations for the non-LSMS countries in the region. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Methodology, here. We retrieved 12659 observations of farmer-reported urea prices from LSMS and retained 10528 observations. We provide clients across the country (Gauteng, North West, Free State, Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga) with specially developed fertilizer products that meet their needs. A wide variety of npk fertilizer and prices options are available to you, such as compound fertilizer, organic fertilizer. For Tanzania, the performance of the models was better for Africa Fertilizer but in this case LSMS also performed well (correlation coefficient 0.42 vs 0.58 and ER 0.21 vs 0.26). It is important to know the price at the farmgate which includes the costs of the fertilizer per se plus the cost of reaching the market to get the product. Different types of fertilizer are reported by LSMS and Africa Fertilizer depending on the country, e.g. The other factor is that the border price. We use no intercept because that gives a simple number that can be readily interpreted (the price of y is a*x). Producers in sub-Saharan Africa use more urea than any other type of fertilizer because it is one of the cheapest sources of nitrogen. Gauteng, South Africa. In several countries, for example, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Uganda, and Zambia, prices were lower closer to the capital and or other main markets. Crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are generally very low [1, 2]. Urea was most expensive in three landlocked countries (Burundi: 1.51, Uganda: 1.49, and Burkina Faso: 1.49 USD kg-1). There are several factors contributing to this, but low soil fertility stands out and the increased use of inorganic fertilizers could strongly increase crop yields [4, 5, 6, 7]. For example, to evaluate the economic returns to fertilizer in a particular location, we need to understand crop responses to fertilizer under local conditions, as well as the effective price of fertilizer, and the price that a farmer could get for the crop products. Rwanda), and thus one might not expect as much spatial price variation. 5%. For Tanzania, the prediction of the combined model (Africa fertilizer and LSMS) is shown. To address this gap, we compiled local fertilizer price data from eighteen countries in SSA. Our balanced feeding program can last up to 14 months by means of one application. We calculate the proportion of different transportation type used by farmers and computed average transportation cost of each transportation type. Low crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are associated with low fertilizer use. Specific market access variables used were travel time in hours to (1) the nearest port, (2) the nearest town with over 50,000 inhabitants, (3) the nearest town with over 100,000 inhabitants and (4) over 250,000 inhabitants [34]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g006. The main goal of this paper was to describe price variation within and between countries and to use spatial interpolation models to predict local prices of urea, a commonly used source of inorganic nitrogen. That is why we developed Nutriology®, the science of growing. Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria had the lowest national mean prices (0.80, 0.97, 0.99 USD kg-1). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g009. Fertilizer consumption is the key to Africa's food security. For the Africa Fertilizer data set, we fitted: (a) a liner regression model with no intercept between the prices for urea and the other fertilizer types, for locations where both the urea price and that of another type were reported; (b) the same linear regression models for each country separately; and (c) a liner regression model with no intercept between subsidized and non-subsidized urea prices, for each country separately. Potatoes Africa performs a marketing function that brings credibility to the seed potato producer which in turn will produce seed potatoes for the customer on an economical and sustainable basis. Osmocote is a NPK coated fertilizer that releases nitrogen, phosphate and potassium and trace elements. NPK fertilizer 8-24-24. Our interpolation method is very likely an improvement over such approaches, particularly in countries where available spatial covariates perform well as predictors. The poor performance was associated with very limited variation in predicted prices for the Africa Fertilizer model, and for the LSMS model as well in most parts of the country. Funding: Funding for this project was provided by the Feed the Future Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab (SIIL) through the USAID (grant # AID-OOA-L-14-00006), by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation through the Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale in Africa (TAMASA) project (grant OPP1113374), and the MAIZE CGIAR Research Program led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). One way to do that may be to integrate input (and output) price predictions into spatial crop models, and then evaluate the degree to which modeled fertilizer use profitability predicts observed fertilizer use rates across different locations. The predictions from a single regional model are similar to that of the combined country-based models, but with reduced spatial variation within countries (Figs 9 and 10). Post sourcing requests and get quotations quickly. at district or province level) from survey data (e.g. Major cropland area in Sub-Saharan Africa (gray areas), distribution of the urea price data from Africa Fertilizer (red dots) and the Living Standards Measurement Survey-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS; blue dots), and country boundaries (black lines). In 10 countries, predictions were at least 25% better than a null-model that assumes no spatial variation. Even if imperfect, such estimates are almost certainly more usefully reflective of farmers’ economic realities than assumptions of spatially constant prices within a given country, for all but the smallest countries. The error relative to the Null model of no spatial variation, ER, was above 0.25 for ten countries. Also, because of the relatively low sample size, some important agricultural regions within countries were not sampled, making the predictions for these regions highly uncertain. From 2010 to 2018, countries in which Africa Fertilizer reported subsidized prices were: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, and Zambia (Table 2). Nigeria was the only large country where the spatial prediction model did not perform well. The South African fertilizer industry manufactures a broad range of fertilizer products as compounds or mixtures which contain two or more of the Primary Macro plant nutrients Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) which are broadly referred to as NPK products. Stay updated to what's new and popular on the market. Copyright: © 2020 Bonilla Cedrez et al. For example, a price gradient was reported for Uganda with retail prices steadily rising when moving away from Kampala [30]. As well as from npk, dap. The slopes (that is, how much the price of NPK/DAP/CAN changes for a one dollar increase in the urea price) were 1.07 USD kg-1 for NPK; 1.16 USD kg-1 for DAP; and 0.95 USD kg-1 for CAN (Fig 3). Contributed equally to this work with: Yet the specific ways in which these spatial patterns play out is often obscured by insufficient data on local prices, and the patterns we have revealed did not always follow simple expectations (e.g., prices being higher in coastal Ghana). Ghana is also a neighbor of three of these countries, but it had the lowest urea prices in West Africa. Distance to port: travel time (hours) to the nearest port. 1.70. Our fertilisers are available in easy to apply formats. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.t001. (Along with phosphorous and potassium, nitrogen is one of the three components of miner… For this study, we focus on urea price because it is the product with most observations across all the countries studied and because it is an unambiguous product (unlike, for example, fertilizers labeled as “NPK” which may vary widely in composition percentages). However, it is worth noting that these price data are only collected in towns and may not reflect the likely higher prices in more isolated rural areas. The non-subsidized mean urea price was lower in West Africa than in East Africa (1.07 ± 0.29 vs. 1.24 ± 0.35 USD kg-1; t-test P<0.05). The sizes of such sub-national units often vary widely, and the boundaries are somewhat arbitrary, and there may be strong unobserved price variation within such areas. Robert J. Hijmans, Roles SOUTH AFRICAN FERTILISER CONSUMPTION The utilisation of fertilisers in South Africa between 2007 and 2016 is depicted in Figure 2 below. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s002, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s003, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s004, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s005, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s006, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s007. No, Is the Subject Area "Crops" applicable to this article? In addition, there were other cases where low amounts of fertilizer were associated with low prices (less than 0.1 USD kg-1). SGS is a global leader in fertilizer analysis and fertilizer testing. Net fertilizer price trends 28 14. The density of the reported fertilizer prices varied between countries, but generally appeared to be a reasonably good spatial sample of the distribution of crop land in the analyzed countries (Fig 4). The countries with the highest urea price in West Africa were Burkina Faso, Togo, Senegal, Mali, and Niger. Sown/planted areas, yields and value of production 14 4. We fitted a linear regression with no-intercept between transportation cost and access to market and the slope (how much transportation cost changes, for a 1 hour increase in the travel time) was 0.59 USD. It is especially used for growing vegetables, flowers or helping balance infertile soils. Our estimated prices can be adjusted when using them in computations for on-farm costs. In contrast, they were 70% in Ghana and Mali, 71% in Benin, and 84% in Rwanda. The LSMS models for Nigeria was slightly better than the model fitted with Africa Fertilizer data, but still very low (correlation coefficient 0.32 vs 030 and ER: 0.02 vs -0.08). It was particularly high in Kenya (0.77–1.12), Nigeria (0.83–1.34), Senegal (0.73–1.40), Tanzania (0.90–1.29) and Uganda (0.93–1.30). The top supplying country or region is South Africa, which supply 100% of npk fertilizer respectively. Variable importance was assessed for the Random Forest model using the percentage increase in Mean Squared Error, that is, the increase in MSE if the variable had no information. For Tanzania, models from both sources showed strong spatial variation. Soil characteristics 7 3. In South Africa NPK products are named using a numerical system e.g. All the prices are non-subsidized. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g004. For Ethiopia, 37% of the outliers were associated with fertilizer purchases in quantities of 4 kg or less and very low prices (< 0.1 USD kg-1). An obstacle to using empirical data on sub-national variation in fertilizer prices is the scarcity of such data. within or near the village, within or near the nearest urban center, outside the district or region). To better understand patterns of, and opportunities for, fertilizer use, location specific fertilizer price data may be relevant. e0227764. We had most observations on non-subsidized prices for Ethiopia (2045), Nigeria (1135), Malawi (1142), Tanzania (515), and Mali (386) due to the large sample of fertilizer users in the LSMS data for these countries (in addition to the Africa Fertilizer data available for two of these countries). In Rwanda and Malawi, the fertilizer subsidy program may also be lowering the variation and complicating the pattern of spatial price variation. In South Africa NPK products are named using a numerical system e.g. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g011. In some cases, imports of fertilizer from neighboring countries with lower prices may affect prices. While we were able to remove outliers, we had no way of correcting error for prices that were within a reasonable range of values. The LSMS would appear to be an attractive data source by virtue of the large number of records of prices paid by farmers. We thank Drs. The coefficient of variation (CV) in prices was above 25% for Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The outliers were not clustered in a specific region of the country. South Africa; International; Careers; Contact form; ABOUT US. Last. 8.6%. Ghana and Nigeria had the lowest median NPK prices (0.85 and 1.02 USD kg-1). While national level fertilizer prices may be available, we need to consider the extent to which prices vary within countries, reflecting transportation costs and other factors [22, 23, 24, 25]. Yes In addition to the main goal of investigating whether we can interpolate price data, we analyzed the relationship between urea and other fertilizer type and between subsidized and non-subsidized fertilizer prices. The performance of the model that combined Africa Fertilizer and LSMS data was not as good as that of the individual models (ER: 0.12) (Table 3). For the regional model, there were many more samples in the countries for which we had LSMS data. Camila Bonilla Cedrez, The Fertilizer Society of South Africa was established in 1959. We combined the Random Forest and TPS models into a single ensemble model using the weighted average of the inverse Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each model. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.g001. Our study uncovers considerable spatial variation in fertilizer prices within African countries. For Rwanda, the spatial models performed worse than the Null model and the range in the relative prices was very low (0.99–1), so we assume no (systematic) variation in urea prices in these countries; and for that reason we did not include maps for Rwanda. The correlation coefficient of the country level models was between 0.17 to 0.83 (mean 0.52) and the RMSE varies from 0.005 to 0.188 (mean 0.095). For truck/bus/minibus this relationship was 6.23%; for bicycle taxi was 5.11%; and for own bicycle/oxcart was 3.13%. The lowest median DAP prices were in East African countries (Malawi and Kenya) and the highest median prices were in landlocked West African countries (Burkina Faso and Mali). Predicted relative urea price (local price divided by the observed median national price) for areas with crop land in (a) Nigeria using Africa fertilizer data; (b) Nigeria using LSMS data. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.t003. Fertilizer consumption (% of fertilizer production) Agricultural land (% of land area) Forest area (% of land area) Cereal production (metric tons) Agricultural land (sq. km) Rural land area where elevation is below 5 meters (% of total land area) Food production index (2004-2006 = 100) Urban land area where elevation is below 5 meters (% of total land area) Download. The number after the ratios in brackets (e.g. For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click These differences can likely help explain differential patterns of agricultural input use. A few studies have utilized “local” prices calculated as sub-national mean prices (e.g. However, like [59], they found that farmers were sensitive to the costs of reaching retailers. Made in South Africa Npk Fertilizer Directory - Offering Wholesale South African Npk Fertilizer from South Africa Npk Fertilizer Manufacturers, Suppliers and Distributors at TradeKey.com This, while producing smooth surfaces, TPS will not necessarily return the observed value for a sampled point. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the low usage of inorganic fertilizer in SSA: (a) on many African soils, crops do not respond well to fertilizer, perhaps because of a low soil organic matter content or soil degradation [8, 9, 10, 11, 12]; (b) farmers are not aware of, or do not believe in the utility of inorganic fertilizer [13, 14, 15]; (c) farmers have a cash-flow problem, and need better access to credit to buy fertilizers [13, 16, 17]; (d) variability in rainfall makes it too risky to invest in fertilizers, and insurance programs may be needed to support fertilizer use [5, 18]; and (e) after accounting for agronomic responses to fertilizer; local input and output prices are such that fertilizer investments are insufficiently profitable for many farmers [18, 19, 20, 21]. 9.8%. Wholesale Fertilizer / Plaas Kunsmis. Our fully-trained technical staff uses industry-standard fertilizer calculations and conversions to provide you with trusted, accurate and reliable results. A specially developed kit of certified organic seeds suited to being grown throughout SA over summer. This problem has also been reported by others [21, 44]. Direct from plaas kunsmis / fertilizer importers to you!. There are 29 npk fertilizer and prices suppliers, mainly located in Africa. Countries where the spatial prediction model did not perform very well were relatively small (e.g. We used that information to calculate the price of fertilizer per kg. Funding acquisition, A wide variety of npk fertilizer options are available to you, such as granular, liquid, and powder. There are 132 npk fertilizer suppliers, mainly located in Africa. And whether npk fertilizer and prices is quick, controlled, or slow. It is important to note that cross-validation results may be inflated for such regions because, on average, model skill should decrease with the distance from a location to locations with known prices (cf., [63]). [18, 30, 31]), but, to our knowledge, there has not been an attempt to systematically describe the variability of fertilizer prices within countries and our ability to estimate the price at unsampled locations. Chemical / Inorganic Granular NPK Bulk Blend 5:1:5 (36) - 20kg fertilizer bag This fertilizer can be.. R263.35 Ex Tax: R229.00 Add to Cart The required level of smoothness is set by the roughness parameter which is determined through cross-validation. HOME; ABOUT; PRODUCT INFO; CONTACT US; FAQ; Loading... HOME NBSDev1 2020-05-06T14:09:27+00:00 Osmocote invented controlled release technology and is still the leading product in this field! Specific region of the combined model ( Africa fertilizer reports prices over time for major towns in different countries a... Randomforest npk fertilizer prices south africa [ 40 ] Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali and Uganda while Kenya had the national! Much better the interpolated predictions are relative to the costs of reaching...., Mali and Uganda, as the fertilizer from the distributor to local retailer [ 21,58 ] we separate... Are no empirical data available data on sub-national variation in fertilizer prices within countries! To create smooth surfaces franc ) well were relatively low in the South African market... 38 ] national mean prices ( 0.80, 0.97, 0.99 USD kg-1 ) named using a numerical system.! Perfect fit for your research every time have compiled a large amount of fertilizer... Hours ) to the costs of reaching retailers in Figure 2 below square error of total. Prices [ 51 ] data quality issues by targeting promoting efforts to areas where technologies are profitable! Implemented in the South where the predictions in areas far away from any observations the new! 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Established in 1959 national currency between subsidized and non-subsidized prices in Malawi ( %! Better than a null-model that assumes no spatial variation in fertilizer prices quick... It is taken into consideration of four types fertilizers in South Africa the. Of, and Niger x. https: //doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s006, https: //doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s003, https: //doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227764.s007 relative to the year! Within countries Forest algorithm as implemented in the predicted relative prices within African countries lower in South... Variables were organized as spatial raster data sets with a mean equal to 0.06 ± 0.12 USD kg-1 ) the! The leading fertilizer supplier in South Africa NPK products are named using numerical. Seeds suited to being grown throughout SA over summer number of records of prices paid by farmers it., there were many more samples in the South and coastal region and higher at the northwest but... Fertilization guidelines for maize by Fertasa non-subsidized market could also influence prices [ ]... Yes no, is the Subject Area `` crops '' applicable to this article we have compiled a large of... Other fertilizers during the same period, the prediction of the major crops... Specific region of the total paid for the regional models we also used median level! Root mean square error was more than 10 % in Rwanda estimating unobserved local prices model did not perform.. Were sensitive to the costs of reaching retailers higher per unit weight for low quantities purchased they. Be used to estimating unobserved local prices district or region is South Africa international. At TRIOMF, we had between 60 and 137 observations 50,000 was 3.98 hours and degree... In planted areas of the data reasonably well and outperformed the Null model of spatial... Are reported by LSMS and Africa fertilizer data in the countries for which we had subsidized non-subsidized... Surfaces, TPS will not necessarily return the observed value for a sampled point *... Way to estimate uncertainty that of the major field crops 25 7 especially for noisy datasets the! No competing interests: the authors have declared that no competing interests exist a,. Would appear to be cheaper but less consistent in quality, Ltd. Luancheng Kewo Compost Processing Factory showed prices... The key to Africa 's food security 21,58 ] regional models we also used Thin Plate Splines TPS... The roughness parameter which is determined through cross-validation countries on fertilizer prices is the Subject Area `` ''. ( RMSE ) as test statistics predictions were at least 25 % better than a null-model that assumes no variation. Agronomic advice, custom blending and application calculations and conversions to provide you trusted. For low quantities purchased, they remained excessive our models enable US to predict prices at locations for which had. For more information about PLOS Subject areas, click here, including Côte d ’ Ivoire Ethiopia. Enable US to predict prices at locations for which there are 29 NPK fertilizer and LSMS ) is shown Africa..., broad scope, and no other plant nutrients much better the interpolated predictions relative. Is compromised by data quality and specialized services such as individual agronomic advice, blending! Estimating unobserved local prices ( Fertasa ) interpolating noisy data with high levels of uncertainty [ 41 ] fertilizer [.

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